What this is
AI Compute Tracker (aicomputetracker.com) tracks the economics of AI compute: what GPUs rent for, what the chips can do, what a million tokens costs, and how much capital is pouring into the buildout. It exists because these numbers are scattered across provider pages, earnings decks, and research posts — and because most public comparisons quietly mix incompatible units.
Dataset status
The market snapshot and the core surveys refresh independently. Their stamps stay separate everywhere on the site.
| Dataset | As of | Coverage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market-implied curves | Spot + monthly tenors to Jul ’27 | All listed points observed | |
| GPU rental quotes | Provider list and marketplace rates | Current survey | |
| Inference API pricing | Input, output, cache, and batch list rates | Current survey | |
| Hardware, capex & buildout | Specs, filings, guidance, and cluster claims | Core dataset refresh |
GPU rental prices
All rental prices are on-demand list rates in US$ per GPU-hour (per chip-hour for TPUs/Trainium), the walk-up price with no committed-use discount. Multi-GPU instance prices are divided per GPU. Reserved or contract capacity typically runs 30–60% below list; spot and interruptible capacity lower still.
Providers are grouped into three classes: hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, Oracle), specialist clouds (Lambda, CoreWeave, Nebius, Crusoe, Together, RunPod, Hyperstack, Voltage Park, Modal, …), and marketplaces (Vast.ai, SF Compute, Salad) whose open bids set the market floor, often on community hardware with fewer guarantees.
Quotes were fetched from provider pricing pages or Vantage instance listings on 2026-07-06. Values marked est come from same-week aggregator snapshots. Historical series are indicative quarterly midpoints reconstructed from list prices, launch announcements, and archived snapshots — treat them as ±15%.
Forward curves & market-implied prices
The forward-curve board is built from Kalshi event-contract ladders on GPU rental prices — weekly series for spot and monthly-average series for each tenor out to Jul ’27 — settled to Ornn’s hourly index. The implied level for a tenor is the strike where the ladder’s yes-probability from bid/ask midpoints crosses 50%: the market’s median expectation, not an executable quote.
Every listed chip-tenor point in this snapshot passed the current ladder-quality gates. If a later book thins or requires interpolation, that point renders hollow and carries (est) in table view. Record-level strike, spread, volume, open-interest, and timestamp evidence remains inspectable.
Superseded snapshots stay in a dated archive — currently 13 sessions — that powers the curve time machine. Archived curves are indicative and never executable.
Why these markets exist
“Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals … the industry will need a similar derivative market.”
01 · Through 2024
OTC
Multi-year cloud commitments and private neocloud deals. Terms are bespoke, prices opaque, and there is no common reference rate.
02 · 2024–25
Indices
Daily GPU-rental benchmarks from Silicon Data and Ornn give compute a printed spot reference.
03 · July 2026
Forward curvesHere
Kalshi event-contract ladders produce a market-implied monthly term structure — the curves tracked here.
04 · Announced
Futures
CME with Silicon Data and ICE with Ornn have announced cash-settled compute futures, subject to review.
05 · Next
Options
Options, perpetuals, and structured capacity finance would complete the risk-transfer stack.
Venue monitor
Where compute risk can trade
Status record ·
Kalshi
Weekly and monthly-average GPU rental ladders across B200, H200, H100, A100, and RTX 5090.
- Instrument
- Event contracts → implied curves
- Benchmark
- Ornn hourly index
- Curves launched
CME Group
Planned futures tied to daily on-demand GPU rental benchmarks, targeted for launch after regulatory review.
- Instrument
- Cash-settled compute futures
- Benchmark
- Silicon Data indices
- Announced
ICE
Planned contracts on transaction-based OCPI benchmarks for H100, H200, B200, and RTX 5090 capacity.
- Instrument
- USD cash-settled GPU futures
- Benchmark
- Ornn Compute Price Index
- Announced
“Live” means listed contracts were available in the archived source record. “Announced” and “pending review” are not launch confirmations; status is intentionally frozen to the date above until the source record is refreshed.
Comparison conventions
The rules that keep unlike hardware, APIs, and estimates from becoming false equivalences.
Hardware
Dense FLOPS
Every throughput figure is dense tensor throughput. NVIDIA and AMD datasheets headline 2×-higher “with sparsity” figures that assume 2:4 structured-sparse weights. BF16/FP16, FP8, and FP4 stay separate; cost-efficiency charts use dense BF16 unless labeled otherwise.
Inference
Blended token price
The single-number price is (3 × input + output) ÷ 4, a typical 3:1 read/write mix. Batch tiers (~50% off), cached input (~90% off), long-context surcharges, and regions shift real costs. “GPT-4-class” means matching original GPT-4 on MMLU, ≈86.4.
Provenance
Estimates policy
Anything not traceable to a primary source carries an est badge: training compute, cluster power or chip counts, some street prices, and aggregator quotes. Company financials come from filings and earnings releases, with fiscal mapping disclosed alongside the charts.
Evidence & sources
Primary sources anchor the datasets; secondary research is used only where first-party disclosure is incomplete.
Provider pricing
GPU rental quotes
Lambda, RunPod, CoreWeave, Nebius, Together, Hyperstack, Crusoe, Modal, Voltage Park, SF Compute, Vast.ai, AWS, Vantage, and Google Cloud TPU.
Official APIs
Model pricing
Filings & research
Financials and buildout
Earnings releases and SEC filings from NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Oracle, and CoreWeave; Epoch AI for training-compute estimates; company announcements and sector reporting for clusters; getdeploying and AIMultiple for market medians.
Evidence & release log
A concise record of the stamps driving the current build.
- Market snapshot refreshed
Forward ladders and archived-session comparisons use this independent market timestamp.
- Core survey refreshed
Rental, hardware, inference, financial, and buildout surfaces use the core dataset stamp unless a panel says otherwise.
What counts as evidence?
A primary price page, filing, earnings release, technical datasheet, or market observation is treated as reported evidence. Reconstructions, third-party medians, and incomplete public claims are labeled inferred or est at the point of use.
Update cadence & contact
Core data was last refreshed 2026-07-06. Rental quotes and token prices are refreshed on a regular sweep; financials update each earnings season; hardware and cluster entries as news lands. Spotted an error or a missing provider? data@aicomputetracker.com.
Nothing on this site is investment advice. Trademarks belong to their owners; prices belong to the providers; mistakes belong to us.